Nationwide News dug deeper to assess the figures presented by Finance Minister, Fayval Williams and Opposition Spokesman Julian Robinson concerning the country’s dept to GDP.

Mahiri Stewart tells us more.

Addressing the House of Representatives on Tuesday, Prime Minister Andrew Holness suggested that the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio was 145% when he took office.

However, in a response the following day, Mr. Robinson sought to correct him, noting that when the PNP left office in early 2016, the country’s debt was 115% of GDP.

Mr. Robinson is relying on the International Monetary Fund’s data available on its website, which shows debt ending 2016 at 113.7% of GDP.

The same information suggests Jamaica’s debt was more than 120% of GDP at the end of 2015.

However, in a quick response, the new Minister of Finance, Fayval Williams, says Mr. Robinson’s assessment is inaccurate.

She points to the conclusion of the IMF’s Article IV consultations, which shows that the debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of March 2016, when the PNP left office, was 128.7%

This suggests an inconsistency in the figures presented by the multi-lateral.

It should be noted that fiscal projections and estimations tend to change as more information becomes available.

However, the question remains, who is correct?

To answer the question, Nationwide News turned to the government’s Fiscal Policy Papers and assessments done by the Auditor General.

The country’s interim Fiscal Policy Paper for March 2016 shows debt-to-GDP declining from 145% in March 2013 to 120% as at March 2016. 

The paper states clearly that the debt-to-GDP data referenced reflects the actual data for GDP growth at the end of March 2016.

This is nearly 9 percentage points less than what was assessed by the IMF at the time.

It’s also five points more than what’s currently listed on the IMF’s website for the period.

An assessment a year later by the Auditor General paints a clearer picture; it shows the debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of the Fiscal Year of 2015-2016 at 122%.

A fiscal year for the assessment of government books begins in April and ends in March.